The industrial power tariff in Pakistan’s incentive package rises to Rs25.30 a unit. Nepra split 2-2 and two members wanted it suspended.

The industrial power tariff in Pakistan’s special incentive package is going up. The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) on 6 November raised the rate for the incremental consumption package from Rs22.98 to Rs25.30 a unit, effective from November 2026 bills. The decision was close: the four-member authority split 2-2, and the chairman’s casting vote carried it. Two members argued the package should be suspended because, on Nepra’s own numbers, the real cost of the extra power is far higher.

Update, 8 Nov 2026, 5:05 pm PKT: The Power Division has said reports of an industrial tariff increase are “incorrect and misleading”, The Express Tribune reported. It said Rs25.30 is the revised marginal rate for extra consumption under the incremental package, not the regular industrial tariff, which it said is about Rs18.94 a unit lower than in March 2024, with an average industrial rate of Rs34.40 a unit including taxes in October 2026. It said the package covered 6,940 GWh of extra use from December 2025 to September 2026, passed on about Rs43.5bn, and was used by 209,335 of 518,316 eligible consumers. Separately, NEPRA notified a fuel charge of about Rs2.37 a unit for September, covered in our November electricity bill increase story.

The short version

• The package rate for industry rises by Rs2.32 a unit, about 10.1%, to Rs25.30 from the November 2026 billing month.
• Nepra called the new rate provisional, not a final finding on the marginal cost of power.
• Two members said the marginal cost is Rs31.83 a unit and asked for the package to be suspended; the chairman disagreed.
• Separately, Dawn reports all consumers face an extra Rs2.37 a unit in November bills under the fuel cost adjustment.

What happened

The package was approved on 9 December 2025 for three years, at Rs22.98 a unit, to encourage factories served by the state distribution companies and K-Electric to use more grid electricity. It was due for review after six months. According to Nepra’s semi-annual review decision, the Ministry of Energy proposed Rs25.30 from October, based on updated fuel prices and the generation mix assumed when the package was designed. Nepra applied it from November instead, because October billing was largely complete.

In a joint dissent, Member Tariff Amina Ahmed and Member Development Maqsood Anwar called Rs25.30 a number unsupported by evidence and said Nepra’s own calculations put the marginal cost at Rs31.83, Dawn reported. Chairman Waseem Mukhtar said their points needed serious consideration but that suspension now “would not be appropriate”, and that the ministry should get another chance to supply data. All four members said revised calculations should have been submitted six months earlier.

The new rate is still well below the cost the dissenters cited

Industrial incremental package, rupees per unit (kWh), decision of 6 Nov 2026

Old package rate (Dec 2025 to Oct 2026)

Rs22.98

New provisional rate (from Nov 2026 bills)

Rs25.30

Marginal cost cited by two dissenting members

Rs31.83

Why it matters

The package is one of the few tools Pakistan has to make grid power competitive for factories and to use spare generating capacity it already pays for. A higher industrial power tariff narrows that discount, and the split vote signals the package itself is now on probation. Nepra warned that missed data deadlines could lead to suspension or termination, and it kept the clause that ends the package if two consecutive reviews require upward adjustments. That uncertainty arrives as the government plans more power-sector changes, including the sale of the first distribution companies in early 2027 and electricity costs that the new energy measures suggest will rise next year.

The knock-on effects

First order: a higher industrial power tariff on extra units

Factories using the package pay Rs2.32 more on each qualifying unit from November. For energy-heavy users such as textiles, steel and chemicals, that eats into the saving that made switching from captive generation worthwhile.

Second order: planning gets harder

A provisional rate under threat of suspension makes it harder for firms to commit to new shifts, export orders or decisions to retire captive plants. Some may keep backup generation or solar options open rather than rely fully on the grid.

Third order: grid demand and capacity costs

If industrial demand from the package falls, fixed capacity costs are spread over fewer units, which would put pressure on tariffs for other consumers. This is a risk, not a forecast; it depends on how factories respond.

Who could benefit

• Power distributors recover more per unit sold under the package.
• Rooftop solar and storage suppliers may see more interest from factories seeking certainty.
• Other consumers, if a rate closer to cost reduces any cross-subsidy, as the dissent implied.

Who may face pressure

• Energy-intensive exporters such as textile mills, whose margins are already thin.
• Firms that dropped captive power on the strength of the package.
• All electricity users, who Dawn says face an extra Rs2.37 a unit in November bills to recover Rs25bn under the fuel cost adjustment.

What to watch

• November 2026 bills: the first to carry the Rs25.30 rate.
• The Ministry of Energy’s data submissions against the deadlines Nepra set in its decision.
• The next review, covering June to November 2026, and whether it triggers the termination clause.
• Responses from industry associations, which have sought changes to the package since May.

Sources

• Dawn, Nepra raises industrial tariff to Rs25.30 per unit, despite dissent, 7 Nov 2026
• Nepra, Decision on semi-annual review of the Incremental Consumption Package for XWDISCOs and K-Electric, 6 Nov 2026
• The Express Tribune, NEPRA notifies Rs2.36 per unit hike in electricity price, 7 Nov 2026

This is analysis, not investment advice. Figures are as of 7 November 2026.