National Savings profit rates went up again on Wednesday 21 October, the second increase this month. The Behbood Savings Certificate, Pensioners’ Benefit Account and Shuhada Family Welfare Account now pay 12.96% a year, up from 12.72%, and Regular Income Certificates pay 12.12%, up from 11.76%, Dawn reported. The government is now offering retail savers well above the State Bank’s 11.5% policy rate, five days before the central bank’s next interest rate decision.
The short version
- Behbood, pensioners’ and Shuhada accounts rise 24 basis points to 12.96%; Regular Income Certificates rise 36 basis points to 12.12%.
- Three-month Short Term Savings Certificates go to 11.12% from 10.80%; Sarwa Islamic Savings Accounts to 11.84% from 11.33%.
- This follows an increase at the start of October, so Regular Income Certificates are up 96 basis points this month (Knock-On calculation).
- The SBP announces its next policy rate decision on 26 October.
What happened
The Central Directorate of National Savings revised National Savings profit rates with effect from 21 October. Dawn reported increases across most schemes. Special Savings Certificates now pay 12% for the first five payments and 12.8% on the final one, according to Pakistan Observer’s schedule. Defence Savings Certificates, which pay a cumulative return on maturity, now return 215% over ten years, up from 205%. The ordinary National Savings Account stays at 10%. Neither report gave an official reason for the change.
It is the second revision in three weeks. Profit reported on 2 October that rates had been raised by as much as 74 basis points, including 60 basis points on Regular Income Certificates (to 11.76%) and 12 basis points on Behbood and pensioners’ accounts (to 12.72%).
Islamic and income savers got the biggest rises
Increase in annual profit rate, basis points, effective 21 Oct 2026 (new rate in brackets)
Why it matters
National Savings profit rates usually follow the yields the government pays banks on its own debt. At the 14 October treasury bill auction, cut-off yields ran from 11.50% on one-month bills to 12.50% on 12-month bills, Pakistan Era reported, against an 11.5% policy rate that has been unchanged since April. As we noted in our look at the SBP interest rate and T-bill yields, lenders demanding more than the policy rate suggests they do not expect cheaper money soon. Two increases in retail savings rates in one month point the same way. That is our analysis, not a forecast of the SBP’s decision. Inflation remains the backdrop: weekly inflation was 11.38% in the latest reading we covered.
The knock-on effects
First order: more income for National Savings holders
A Behbood or pensioners’ account now pays Rs1,080 a month per Rs100,000, according to Pakistan Observer’s schedule. For widows, retirees and older savers who rely on these schemes, the rise helps offset prices that are still climbing.
Second order: banks compete for deposits
When government schemes pay close to 13%, banks have to offer savers more to hold on to deposits, or accept outflows to National Savings. That keeps banks’ funding costs high, and with them the cost of loans priced off KIBOR.
Third order: a dearer debt bill
Every increase raises what the government pays on its retail borrowing, adding to interest costs in a budget already under IMF scrutiny. Strong SBP reserves of $21.5bn ease external pressure but do not lower domestic borrowing costs.
Who could benefit
- Pensioners and widows: Behbood and pensioners’ accounts now pay 12.96%.
- Islamic savers: Sarwa Islamic Savings Accounts got the largest rise, 51 basis points.
- Income-focused households: Regular Income Certificates pay Rs1,010 a month per Rs100,000.
Who may face pressure
- Banks: deposit competition from government schemes.
- Borrowing businesses: high funding costs make loan rates slower to fall.
- The federal budget: higher interest payments on savings schemes.
What to watch
- 26 October: the SBP’s monetary policy decision.
- 28 October: the next T-bill auction, with a Rs1,050bn target.
- Early November: October inflation data from the PBS.
- Whether National Savings revises rates again after the SBP decision.
Sources
- Dawn, Profit rates on National Savings schemes increased from Oct 21, 21 October 2026
- Pakistan Observer, National Savings announces new profit rates from 21 October 2026, 21 October 2026
- Profit, National Savings raises profit rates by up to 74bps, 2 October 2026
- Pakistan Era, SBP T-Bill Auction 14 October 2026: Cut-Off 11.50-12.50%, 15 October 2026
- Pakistan Era, SBP Next Monetary Policy Meeting: 26 October 2026, October 2026
This is analysis, not investment advice. Figures are as of 21 Oct 2026.
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