The Fitch UAE rating stays at AA- with a stable outlook, and the agency now expects the economy to grow 0.5% in 2026, according to The National. That is a sharp turn from May, when Fitch expected a 4.8% contraction. For businesses in the UAE, the message is mixed: the country’s credit standing is intact and oil revenue is recovering fast, but Fitch still sees the non-oil economy, where most companies earn their money, shrinking this year.
The short version
- Fitch kept the UAE at AA-, its fourth-highest grade, with a stable outlook.
- Real GDP is now forecast to grow 0.5% in 2026, against a 4.8% contraction forecast in May.
- Non-oil GDP is still seen falling about 1.5% this year; hydrocarbon output rises about 7%, then 26% in 2027.
- Abu Dhabi’s sovereign net foreign assets, at 180% of UAE GDP, remain the main cushion.
What happened
Fitch Ratings said on Friday, 13 November, that it was maintaining the UAE’s AA- rating, three notches below the top grade, The National reported. The agency expects real GDP to grow 0.5% in 2026. Within that, hydrocarbon GDP is expected to rise by about 7% this year and by 26% in 2027, helped by higher export volumes, elevated crude prices and oil production that is no longer constrained by OPEC+ quotas after the UAE left the group in May.
The non-oil side is weaker. Fitch estimates a 1.5% contraction in non-oil GDP in 2026 and says non-oil growth will stay below its earlier trend over the forecast period. It expects Dubai’s real GDP to remain below its 2025 level next year, and it expects all the emirates to put recovery programmes in place. Official data quoted by The National show the UAE economy grew 0.4% year on year to AED 961.9bn in the first half of 2026, while Dubai’s economy was AED 473bn, down 2.3%.
Fitch now sees UAE growth in 2026, led by oil
Fitch real GDP forecasts, % change, May 2026 vs November 2026
Why it matters
A sovereign rating sets the floor for what banks, government-related companies and large corporates pay to borrow abroad. Keeping AA- with a stable outlook means no rating-driven rise in funding costs for UAE issuers, which matters as lenders such as First Abu Dhabi Bank raise capital to keep lending (see our report on the FAB rights issue). The forecast split also matters: strong oil revenue supports government spending, but a contracting non-oil economy points to softer demand for retailers, hotels and services this year.
The knock-on effects
First order: borrowing costs hold steady
With the rating unchanged, UAE banks and state-linked borrowers keep their benchmark. Bond and loan pricing should track global rates and company risk, not a sovereign downgrade.
Second order: oil money flows before non-oil demand recovers
A 26% jump in hydrocarbon GDP forecast for 2027 would lift export receipts and public revenue first. Energy contractors, oilfield services and shipping firms are closest to that money; consumer-facing businesses wait for it to reach payrolls and projects.
Third order: recovery programmes shape the non-oil rebound
Fitch expects each emirate to roll out recovery programmes. Their design, from fee relief to project spending, will decide which sectors recover first. Recent official data already show resilience in trade, with UAE non-oil foreign trade up 10.1% in nine months, and corporate tax revenue gives the federal government a growing non-oil income stream.
Who could benefit
- Energy suppliers and contractors: higher output without quota limits means more drilling, maintenance and logistics work.
- Banks and bond issuers: a stable sovereign rating keeps their funding benchmark unchanged.
- Exporters and shippers: higher export volumes support port and freight demand.
Who may face pressure
- Retail, hospitality and leisure: a 1.5% non-oil contraction points to softer spending this year.
- Dubai-focused service firms: Fitch sees Dubai’s real GDP below its 2025 level next year.
- Smaller firms relying on credit: banks may stay selective until non-oil demand turns.
What to watch
- Late November to December 2026: details of emirate-level recovery programmes and federal budget announcements.
- Q4 2026: official third-quarter GDP data, to test Fitch’s 0.5% forecast.
- 2027: whether hydrocarbon output delivers the forecast 26% rise.
Sources
- The National, Fitch expects UAE GDP to rise in 2026 and maintains high-grade credit rating, 14 November 2026
- Khaleej Times, Fitch affirms UAE’s ‘AA-‘ rating as strong buffers shield economy, 25 May 2026
This is analysis, not investment advice. Figures are as of 15 November 2026.
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