The Dubai mortgage market registered AED 150.15bn of mortgage transactions in the first nine months of 2026, up about 14% on a year earlier, according to figures cited by the mortgage platform Holo and reported by Arabian Business and TradeArabia on 11 November. Over the same months, off-plan sales cooled sharply. For banks, brokers, developers and anyone selling to new homeowners, the market is shifting from cash-rich launch buying towards financed purchases of finished homes.
The short version
- Registered mortgages in Dubai reached AED 150.15bn from January to September 2026, against AED 132.21bn a year earlier (Holo).
- About 30,170 mortgage transactions were registered, with AED 16.79bn in September alone.
- Off-plan sales in September fell 49% by volume and 50.5% by value from September 2025, to 7,157 deals worth AED 14.3bn.
- October data show more mortgages but smaller loans: 3,811 registrations, up 5.2%, with a combined value down 24.7% (Property Finder, Dubai Land Department data).
What happened
Holo’s figures put the value of registered mortgage transactions in Dubai at AED 150.15bn for January to September 2026, compared with AED 132.21bn in the same period of 2025. That is an increase of about AED 17.9bn (Knock-On calculation). Arabian Business notes that registrations can include refinancing and other secured lending, not only new home purchases.
Dubai mortgage registrations are up about 14% this year
Value of registered mortgage transactions, January–September, AED bn
The off-plan market moved the other way. In September 2026, Holo counted 7,157 off-plan transactions worth AED 14.3bn, against 14,044 worth AED 28.8bn in September 2025. Off-plan villa and townhouse deals were an exception, up 64.1%. Michael Hunter, Holo’s chief executive and co-founder, said the strength of a property market “should not be measured by sales volumes alone”.
Off-plan sales value halved in a year
Dubai off-plan transactions in September, value in AED bn
Newer data point in the same direction. Khaleej Times, citing Property Finder’s analysis of Dubai Land Department data, reported 3,811 mortgage registrations in October, up 5.2% on September, but their combined value fell 24.7% to AED 7.32bn. The average apartment mortgage dropped to AED 1.77m from AED 2.67m, and 34.7% of apartment sales used a mortgage, up from 26.7% in August.
Why it matters
Off-plan buying is usually funded by developer payment plans and cash, while mortgages mostly finance ready homes. A growing Dubai mortgage market alongside weaker launch sales suggests more end-users are buying finished property, a trend also visible in October’s Dubai property prices and ready-home deals. It also means demand is more sensitive to borrowing costs. Khaleej Times reports that the Central Bank of the UAE’s Base Rate stands at 3.90% after a September change, and was held on 28 October.
The knock-on effects
First order: banks and brokers
More registrations mean more arrangement fees, valuation work and broker commissions, even if average loan sizes shrink. Lenders gain a larger, more granular home-loan book, which fits the push by UAE banks to raise capital for lending, as in the FAB rights issue.
Second order: developers and agents
Developers that rely on launch-day sales face slower cash inflows, while those with completed stock benefit from mortgage-ready buyers. Agents may shift effort from launch events to secondary listings, where mortgage approvals set the pace of a deal.
Third order: household spending
Financed owner-occupiers spend on furniture, fit-out, insurance and services after moving in. With 68.5% of Mortgage Finder applications from people earning AED 20,000 to AED 59,999 a month (Khaleej Times), that demand is spread across mid-market households rather than concentrated at the top end.
Who could benefit
- Banks and mortgage brokers: more registrations and refinancing activity.
- Owners of ready homes: a deeper pool of financed buyers.
- Valuers, conveyancers and insurers: each mortgage needs a valuation, transfer work and cover.
- Home furnishing and fit-out firms: owner-occupiers tend to spend after handover.
Who may face pressure
- Launch-focused developers: off-plan sales value halved in September.
- Off-plan resellers: weaker launch demand can narrow the gap between purchase and resale prices.
- Buyers with variable-rate loans: repayments follow the Base Rate and Eibor.
What to watch
- Early December: November transaction and mortgage data from the Dubai Land Department and Property Finder.
- US Federal Reserve meeting, December: the Central Bank of the UAE usually follows Fed moves, which feed into mortgage rates.
- Q4 2026: whether off-plan villa and townhouse demand keeps growing. More in UAE Property.
Sources
- Arabian Business, Dubai property market sees $41bn in mortgages as off-plan sales slump, 11 Nov 2026
- TradeArabia, Dubai’s mortgage market tops $41bn as dynamics shift, 11 Nov 2026
- Khaleej Times, More Dubai buyers are taking mortgages, but they are borrowing less, 9 Nov 2026
- Khaleej Times, More Dubai homebuyers pay cash as interest rates rise, but mortgages still fund most deals, 2 Nov 2026
This is analysis, not investment advice. Figures are as of 15 November 2026.
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