SPI inflation in Pakistan rose to 12.31% year on year in the week ending 5 November, up from 11.32% the week before, according to Pakistan Bureau of Statistics data reported by Dawn. The weekly Sensitive Price Index (SPI) rose 0.29% on the week. The jump came even though petrol and diesel got cheaper: a 54% weekly surge in tomato prices and another rise in LPG outweighed the fuel relief. For businesses, the weekly index is an early read on the household budgets that drive consumer demand and wage pressure.
The short version
- The SPI rose 12.31% year on year in the week to 5 November, up nearly a percentage point in one week.
- LPG is 114.88% dearer than a year ago and rose another 3.72% on the week.
- Petrol fell 4.20% and diesel 2.97% on the week, but both remain more than 36% above last year.
- Of the 51 items tracked, 21 rose, 10 fell and 20 were unchanged.
What happened
The SPI tracks 51 essential items in 50 markets across 17 cities. In the latest week, tomatoes rose 54.18%, LPG 3.72%, potatoes 2.07% and eggs 1.17%. The biggest weekly falls were petrol (4.20%), diesel (2.97%) and gram pulse (1.08%). Dawn reported that short-term inflation has been in double digits for several weeks in a row, and that recent declines in oil prices should show up in the next review.
Over the year, the pattern is split. Energy and staples are far more expensive: LPG, tomatoes, electricity for the lowest consumption band, diesel, petrol and wheat flour all rose by more than a third. Several foods are cheaper than a year ago, led by potatoes, eggs and sugar.
Energy drives the SPI; some foods are cheaper than last year
Year-on-year price change, % (week ending 5 Nov 2026)
Why it matters
The SPI is not the official consumer price index, but it moves first and it weighs heavily on low-income households. A reading above 12% shows how much energy costs are still feeding through, even after a run of fuel cuts covered in our petrol price and levy report. LPG is the standout: the new LPG policy is meant to improve supply, but prices have more than doubled in a year. Electricity is also moving the other way, with Nepra this week raising the industrial power tariff in its incentive package.
The knock-on effects
First order: SPI inflation squeezes household budgets
Higher costs for cooking gas, vegetables and flour leave less for other spending. Retailers of discretionary goods and fast-moving consumer brands tend to feel this first.
Second order: costs for food businesses
Restaurants, bakeries and caterers that rely on LPG, flour and fresh produce face higher input costs and must choose between raising prices and accepting lower margins.
Third order: wages and interest rate expectations
Sustained double-digit weekly readings can feed demands for higher wages and make markets less confident about rate cuts. Whether that happens depends on whether cheaper fuel pulls the index down in the coming weeks, as Dawn expects.
Who could benefit
- Transporters and logistics firms, as petrol and diesel fell again on the week.
- Food processors using sugar and potatoes, whose input prices are well below last year.
- Tomato growers and traders selling into a short market.
Who may face pressure
- Households and small eateries using LPG, after a 114.88% rise in a year.
- Flour mills and bakeries, with wheat flour up 33.95% year on year.
- Consumer goods retailers, if spending shifts further towards essentials.
What to watch
- Next week’s SPI release (usually on Fridays): does cheaper fuel bring the year-on-year rate down?
- The next LPG price notification and whether supply under the new policy steadies prices.
- November electricity bills, which Dawn says carry an extra Rs2.37 a unit fuel cost adjustment.
- November CPI from the PBS in early December.
Sources
- Dawn, Short-term inflation surges to 12.31pc due to costly food, LPG, 6 Nov 2026
- Dawn, Nepra raises industrial tariff to Rs25.30 per unit, despite dissent, 7 Nov 2026
This is analysis, not investment advice. Figures are as of 7 November 2026.
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