The LPG shortage in Pakistan has turned into a price shock. The average 11.67kg cylinder cost Rs6,310.76 in the week to 22 October, up 22.4% in a single week and more than double its level a year ago, according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. Traders link the jump to the closure of two border crossings with Iran on 17 October, which halted LPG imports that the Pakistan LPG Association says run at about 7,000 tonnes a day. Market prices are now roughly twice the rate set by the regulator.
The short version
- LPG was the biggest weekly riser in the government’s price basket: +22.44% in the week to 22 October, +107% on the year.
- OGRA’s official October price is Rs279.34 per kg; markets in Peshawar charge about Rs600 and parts of northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa up to Rs750.
- The Taftan and Gabd-Rimdan crossings with Iran closed on 17 October; Gabd-Rimdan has reopened only for Pakistani exports of perishables.
- OGRA has delayed a crackdown on overcharging because officials fear it could trigger strikes and worse shortages.
What happened
The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics weekly SPI report put the average 11.67kg LPG cylinder at Rs6,310.76 in the week to 22 October, against Rs5,154.16 a week earlier and Rs3,046.92 a year ago. LPG was the biggest riser among the 19 items that got dearer, as the SPI rose 0.65% in the week and its annual rate climbed to 11.85% from 11.38%.
Reuters, reported by Business Recorder, said the Gabd-Rimdan and Taftan crossings were closed on 17 October. Balochistan’s government called the closure temporary and said it was meant to address security concerns and curb smuggling; Iran’s foreign ministry cited technical issues and said consultations on resuming trade were under way. Shamsul Haq, a former president of the Gwadar Chamber of Commerce and Industry, said more than 4,000 tonnes a day had entered through Gabd-Rimdan alone. “These imports are at halt,” he said. Irfan Khokhar, chairman of the Pakistan LPG Association, said a 12kg cylinder had risen from Rs4,500 to Rs7,000 within days in Balochistan, with Rs7,500 quoted in Lahore and Rs8,200 in Skardu.
The average LPG cylinder now costs almost twice OGRA’s notified price
Domestic LPG cylinder price, Rs. PBS averages for an 11.67kg cylinder; OGRA notified price for an 11.8kg cylinder, October 2026
Why it matters
LPG is the fallback fuel for homes, eateries and small workshops that are not on the gas grid, or that lose piped gas in winter. The Express Tribune reports that natural gas shortages in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are already pushing households towards LPG and firewood, and firewood is up Rs200 to Rs300 a maund. That squeeze lands just as Knock-On’s earlier analysis of late LNG import decisions for winter warned that industry, fertiliser and CNG could lose piped gas first. It also feeds directly into the inflation data the State Bank will weigh at its interest rate decision on 26 October.
The knock-on effects
First order: the LPG shortage in Pakistan raises cooking and heating costs
Households and small food businesses that rely on cylinders are paying roughly double OGRA’s Rs279.34 per kg rate. In northern districts, where LPG is used for heating as well as cooking, the gap is widest.
Second order: border trade and transport stall
Reuters reports hundreds of trucks, including LPG tankers, stranded on both sides of the border, and more than 1,000 Pakistani containers of potatoes, bananas and rice bound for Iran stuck. The Quetta Chamber of Commerce and Industry has told members to stop placing new orders with Iran until further notice.
Third order: price controls are tested
An unnamed senior OGRA official told the Express Tribune that prices could exceed Rs700 per kg if enforcement disrupts supply. That leaves the regulator choosing between tolerating overcharging and risking a supply strike, the same tension Knock-On covered when an LPG auction that could have added Rs900 a cylinder was blocked.
Who could benefit
- Local LPG producers and sea importers: supply that does not depend on the Iran land route can sell into a short market, subject to OGRA’s price cap.
- Electric cooking and heating suppliers: a sustained cylinder price gap may push some urban users towards electric alternatives.
Who may face pressure
- Restaurants, bakeries and street-food sellers that cook on cylinders.
- Households in Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Gilgit-Baltistan, where LPG and firewood fill the gap left by piped gas.
- Exporters of perishables to Iran, with containers stranded at the border.
- Licensed LPG distributors caught between the notified price and higher replacement costs.
What to watch
- Whether Taftan and Gabd-Rimdan reopen for LPG imports, after the army chief’s talks in Tehran this week.
- The next PBS weekly SPI release, expected on Friday 30 October.
- The SBP monetary policy decision on Monday 26 October.
- OGRA’s November LPG price notification and whether its enforcement drive goes ahead.
Sources
- Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Executive Summary SPI Report, week ended 22.10.2026, 23 Oct 2026
- Business Recorder (Reuters), Pakistan LPG shortage worsens after border closure, traders say, 23 Oct 2026
- The Express Tribune, LPG crisis deepens as OGRA delays op, 23 Oct 2026
- Profit (Pakistan Today), LPG prices hit Rs600 per kg across Pakistan, 21 Oct 2026
- 24 News HD, Pakistan’s weekly inflation up 0.65pc, annual rate reaches 11.85pc, 23 Oct 2026
This is analysis, not investment advice. Figures are as of 23 October 2026.
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