The KSE-100 rally has won back 83% of last week’s loss in three sessions. Oil back near $116 is the next test.

The KSE-100 rally reached a third session on Wednesday. The Pakistan Stock Exchange’s benchmark index closed on 28 October at 165,736.75, up 1,269.55 points or 0.77%, Business Recorder reported. Since last Friday’s close the index has gained 3,361.91 points, winning back about 83% of what it lost in the week to 23 October (Knock-On calculation). The rally has come despite a higher interest rate and with Brent crude back near $116 a barrel, so its next leg depends on oil and the Gulf talks more than on local news.

The short version

• The KSE-100 closed at 165,736.75 on Wednesday, up 1,269.55 points (0.77%), after trading between 164,355.82 and 166,100.33.
• Over three sessions it has risen 3,361.91 points, about 83% of the previous week’s 4,044.84-point loss.
• Tuesday’s 1,428.73-point gain came on 402 million shares worth Rs18.06bn, led by banks, cement and fertiliser.
• Brent rose to $115.90 on Wednesday morning after a reported missile attack on a Saudi refinery.

What happened

Wednesday’s session was uneven. According to Business Recorder, the market first faced selling pressure and then recovered in the afternoon, touching a high of 166,100.33 before settling slightly lower. The Express Tribune reported that the index was up about 397 points at midday, as Asian stocks rallied on renewed enthusiasm about artificial intelligence.

The bigger move came on Tuesday. The index closed at 164,467.20, up 1,428.73 points or 0.88%, Dawn reported. Volume rose 6.9% to 402 million shares and traded value rose 11.6% to Rs18.06bn. MCB Bank, Fauji Fertilizer, United Bank, Pakistan Petroleum and National Bank together added about 490 points. Commercial banks were the largest contributing sector, adding 568.14 points, according to Profit. Advancing shares outnumbered decliners by 77 to 21.

Three up days have won back most of last week’s fall

KSE-100 change, index points, week to 23 Oct and sessions of 26–28 Oct 2026

Loss in the week to 23 Oct

-4,045

Monday 26 Oct

+664

Tuesday 27 Oct

+1,429

Wednesday 28 Oct

+1,270

Three-session gain

+3,362 (83%)

Why it matters

The KSE-100 rally shows how much of last week’s fall was fear rather than a change in company earnings. Investors read the State Bank’s 50 basis point increase as a balancing act, Dawn reported, because some had expected a larger 100bp move. Knock-On covered that decision in its story on the SBP interest rate rise to 12%, and Monday’s first rebound in KSE-100 today: up 664 points. Diplomacy by Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey on the US-Iran conflict also helped sentiment. The index needs about 683 more points to return to its close of 16 October, before last week’s fall (Knock-On calculation). It was still down 8.78% in the fiscal year to Tuesday, Profit reported.

The knock-on effects

First order: the KSE-100 rally lifts banks first

Banks led Tuesday’s gains. A higher policy rate tends to support their interest income in the short term, which explains why MCB, UBL and National Bank were among the top contributors even after a rate hike.

Second order: oil is the swing factor

Brent rose $2.02 to $115.90 on Wednesday morning after Yemen’s Houthis said they had hit a large Saudi refinery, The Express Tribune reported, citing Reuters. Higher oil feeds Pakistan’s import bill, inflation and rate expectations. Knock-On’s oil price forecast for Pakistan sets out why banks now expect Brent to stay near $110.

Third order: capital raising and earnings season

A firmer market makes listings and rights issues easier to price. Quarterly results are also arriving: cement and auto companies such as Fauji Cement, Maple Leaf and Ghandhara were in focus on Tuesday on improved profitability, according to Dawn.

Who could benefit

• Commercial banks: the biggest contributors to Tuesday’s rise.
• Oil and gas producers: Pakistan Petroleum was among the top gainers, with crude above $110.
• Brokers and fund managers: volume and traded value both rose on Tuesday.

Who may face pressure

• Fuel-heavy businesses: transport, airlines and manufacturers if Brent stays near $116.
• Leveraged companies: a 12% policy rate keeps borrowing costs high.
• Late buyers: analysts quoted by Dawn expect volatility to continue.

What to watch

• Thursday, 29 October: whether the index can pass 166,420, its 16 October close.
• Sunday, 1 November: the OPEC+ meeting on December output targets.
• Gulf diplomacy: any progress or setback in talks involving Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan.
• Early November: October CPI inflation data from the PBS.

Sources

• Business Recorder, PSX: buying continues, KSE-100 gains nearly 1,300 points, 28 Oct 2026
• Dawn, Equities extend rally on peace optimism, 28 Oct 2026
• Profit via Investify, PSX Closing Bell: Green Day, Great Day, 27 Oct 2026
• The Express Tribune, PSX climbs nearly 400 points amid sustained buying interest, 28 Oct 2026
• Reuters via KFGO, Oil prices rise after attack on Saudi Arabian refinery reignites supply concerns, 28 Oct 2026

This is analysis, not investment advice. Figures are as of 28 October 2026.