Good morning. Here’s what matters for Pakistani business today.
Emergency rule in KP wiped almost 2,000 points off the KSE-100
The KSE-100 closed Monday at 165,124.41, down 1,964.86 points (1.18%), in the first session after the federal government imposed emergency and governor’s rule in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Internet disruption, motorway blockades and school closures are also affecting businesses in the province.
Why it matters: Markets can price a known risk but struggle with an open-ended one; governor’s rule can run in two-month extensions for up to six months, and the political strain comes just as the IMF programme and the State Bank’s rate decision approach.
Aurangzeb’s growth forecast is above 4%. Every major lender expects less
Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb told Reuters the economy should grow “north of 4%” this fiscal year, above the IMF (3.5%), ADB (3.7%) and World Bank (3.8%). He expects five or six privatisations to raise more than $1 billion and plans to refinance short-term external debt into longer maturities.
Why it matters: Revenue targets and company sales budgets rest on a growth assumption; if growth lands nearer the lenders’ forecasts, consumer-facing businesses should not expect a quick recovery in volumes.
Flour is up 32.6% in a year. Punjab is spending Rs10bn to hold the line
A 20kg bag of flour averaged Rs2,851 in the week to 8 October, up from Rs2,150 a year earlier, and open-market wheat in Punjab reached Rs5,200 per 40kg. Punjab approved a Rs10bn subsidy and raised the quota of government wheat sold to mills at Rs3,800 per maund.
Why it matters: Bakeries, restaurants and food processors face flour costs about a third higher than a year ago, and a two-price market, from Rs2,200-2,300 a 20kg bag in Faisalabad and Lahore to Rs3,400 in Karachi, invites leakage of subsidised supply.
The Khaadi IPO values the retailer at up to Rs45bn
Khaadi’s draft prospectus prices shares at Rs12.40 to Rs18, valuing the fashion retailer at Rs31bn to Rs45bn. Profit’s review finds about Rs54 of every Rs100 Khaadi takes in goes to companies linked to its owners that are not part of the listing.
Why it matters: A large consumer brand listing in a volatile market tests investor appetite, and how the market prices the related-party structure could shape how other family businesses approach listings.
Pakistan crude oil imports may soon include Libya
Petroleum Minister Ali Pervaiz Malik said in Riyadh that refineries have been encouraged to explore Libyan crude. Crude imports rose 31.6% to $7.17bn in FY26, the largest part of a $16.86bn petroleum import bill; no volumes or prices were announced.
Why it matters: A second supplying region gives refiners a fallback if Hormuz is disrupted, but Libyan cargoes still pass Bab al-Mandab, so the gain is supply security rather than cheaper fuel.
What to watch today
- Today, 13 October: parliamentary sessions are called to take up the KP emergency; both houses must approve it by 21 October.
- 12 to 18 October: the IMF and World Bank annual meetings, and any updated IMF forecast for Pakistan.
- 15 October: deadline for public comments on Khaadi’s draft prospectus.
- Flour prices: the next weekly PBS price index, and details of how Punjab’s Rs10bn subsidy is disbursed.
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